Bird flu could kill 100,000 British children-report

A bird flu pandemic among humans could kill 100,000 children in Britain, said a government health adviser who recommended schools draw up plans to close in the event of an outbreak, a newspaper reported on Sunday.

The Sunday Times quoted government health adviser Liam Donaldson as saying in a confidential letter to the schools minister that if the virus was particularly severe, deaths among school-age children “could be as high as 100,000”.

“This would mean that potentially 50,000 deaths might be prevented by school closures,” Donaldson was quoted as saying.

“For this reason, I would recommend that schools should be planning on the basis that they may have to close for part or all of the pandemic,” he said.

The overall death toll in Britain in a severe outbreak of the disease could be as high as 700,000, the Sunday Times quoted Donaldson as writing.

Britain reported its first case of the lethal H5N1 strain in a wild bird when a mute swan was found dead in Cellardyke harbour in eastern Scotland last week.

While mainly affecting animals, scientists fear the disease could mutate into a form that could pass between humans, causing a pandemic.

British government advisers say the chances of that happening are very low, although the government is preparing for the possibility.

According to the World Health Organisation, the virus has killed 109 people, almost all of them in Asia and involving people who had close contact with infected birds.

Scotland’s First Minister Jack McConnell confirmed in a television interview on Sunday that schools in Scotland could be closed if a pupil caught the virus.

“The closure of schools would only happen if there were cases being identified in those schools but clearly if that was the case, the closure ... would be an immediate and urgent priority,” he told Sky news.

He did not specify if closure would come in a bird to human transmission of the disease or only in the case of a pandemic.

A report in the Sunday Telegraph newspaper said the government was drawing up emergency plans to tackle widespread food shortages in the event of a bird flu pandemic.

Officials fear many truck drivers could be unwilling to enter infected areas if there was a pandemic, leading to supply problems, the report said.

Off-duty firemen and retired truck drivers would be pressed into service to deliver essential food supplies, according to “secret” cabinet documents seen by the Sunday Telegraph.

Provided by ArmMed Media
Revision date: July 3, 2011
Last revised: by Dave R. Roger, M.D.