Scotland’s five-month-old smoking ban has reduced pubs’ drink sales by over 10 percent, a trade body said on Wednesday, giving investors an indication of what might happen if similar legislation becomes law in England next year.

A survey of 365 pub owners found 46 percent reporting a drop in visits by regular customers since the ban started on March 26, compared with 5 percent noting an increase, the Scottish Licensed Trade Association (SLTA) said.

“Our members are paying for an ill-judged and hasty government policy,” said SLTA Chief Executive Paul Waterson. “Even our prediction of a 7 percent loss of business has proved optimistic.”

“Drink sales look to have dropped by over 10 percent, and surprisingly even food sales are down 3 percent,” he added.

The survey suggests the impact of the smoking ban might exceed that experienced by brewer and pub operator Greene King, which expanded in Scotland last year by acquiring brewery Belhaven.

It said at the start of last month that like-for-like retail sales in Scotland had fallen 2.2 percent since May 1.

However, Francis Patton, customer services director at Britain’s biggest pub owner Punch, said its experience of Scotland’s smoking ban was very different from the SLTA survey.

“Within our pub estate, we’re not seeing figures anything like those mentioned in that survey, and that’s probably due to the huge amount of planning we did ahead of the ban,” he told Reuters.

“Food sales have picked up, and drink varies on a pub-by-pub basis,” he added. “And it’s still too early to tell.”

The SLTA’s Waterson said sales might worsen as the Scottish winter draws in.

“We are anxious about what is going to happen in the next few months as the weather gets worse and people choose to smoke and drink more at home,” he said.

England is expected to ban smoking in pubs from mid-2007, but a ban is seen as less harmful to drink sales there, as England’s milder climate would allow smokers to drink outside for more of the year.