A new risk score developed using medical records from more than 3 million people accurately predicts the likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes within 10 years, researchers report.

The assessment tool, dubbed the QDScore, doesn’t need laboratory testing or clinical measurements, but does include factors such as social deprivation and ethnicity.

Dr. Julia Hippisley-Cox, at the University of Nottingham, UK, and colleagues developed the QDscore based on data from approximately 2.5 million patients, and then validated its accuracy using information from another 1.2 million patients. All the subjects were free of diabetes to begin with, but roughly 120,000 were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes during follow-up.

As reported in the British Medical Journal, the risk score is built upon ethnicity (nine categories), age, sex, height and weight, smoking status, and several medical history items. It also includes a measure of deprivation, the Townsend deprivation score, ranging from -6 in the most affluent to 11 in the most deprived.

The researchers found that almost half of the cases of diabetes occurred in people who scored in the top tenth on the QDScore distribution, the results indicate.

Hippisley-Cox and her associates believe that their algorithm will be of benefit by identifying people who are at high risk for developing diabetes, since “good evidence shows that behavioral or pharmacological interventions can prevent type 2 diabetes in up to two thirds of patients at high risk.”

They add that the algorithm can be used in a clinical setting or by individuals through a simple web calculator (http://www.qdscore.org).

SOURCE: British Medical Journal, Online First March 18, 2009.